The Future of Futureology...

Again, another great article from the Economist. Robert Cotterell penned a view on how predicting the future has moved on from big, long term Megatrends and much more into:

1. Think small (e.g Mircotrends)
2. Think short-term (e.g. on-going innovation)
3. Say you don't know
4. Talk less, listen more

I feel slightly uncomfortable about the first two, especially at the blinkered exclusion of undenable, important long-term trends & their implications (e.g. here).

And, is it me or are these first two just 'coping strategies' and/or a smart way to sell more Trendwatching subscriptions and consultancy?

But I certainly like and buy into 3. & 4. Humility. Now there's an important word in our skunk-drunk Web2.0 world.

They add a selection of trendspotters' tips for 2008 here:

• Sleep is the new sex (sad but true for many 30/40 somethings, but also suspect it's a trend shooting down the demographic profile)
• Person-to-person lending (e.g. Kiva and, of course, Zopa)
• The N11 ('Next 11' countries snapping at the heels of the BRIC countries [Brazil, Rissia, India and China] who include S. Korea, Mexico, Indonesia and Vietnam. Especially Vietnam, apparently.)
• Vicarious consumption (e.g. iliketotallyloveit.com)
• Newly released ex-cons (apparently being released in their masses)
• Bourgeois & bankrupt (courtesy of the credit crunch)